The Four Factors and Why Palin Can Win.
Posted by Brian Epps on December 9, 2010
Based on my observations, there are four factors to winning office in presidential politics.
- 1: This is who I am.
- 2: This is what I believe.
- 3: This is what I want to do.
- 4: Come join me. (The only mandatory factor)
In order to win, a political figure needs at least one of the first three factors to be compelling, with factor 4 being mandatory in that no one will vote for someone they don’t want to join with politically.
Obama, as it has been revealed, pulled a bait-and-switch with factors 1 and 2 to get enough people to want to pull the lever for him (factor 4). He was not really very specific about 3 and the press avoided reporting the times he was. Unfortunately for him, a false narrative always collapses, and it seems to be doing so early and in public view.
Factors 1 and 2 are tough for any conservative to get across, since few in the intelligentsia – especially the press – are willing to believe or honestly report on a conservative. There, too, a false narrative is used to paint a distorted picture, but betting on a false narrative over a long period is a suckers bet. It happens from time to time, but needs to be unchallenged to work.
Palin has had a false narrative running against her from the day she accepted McCain’s offer. The press will continue to use that false narrative (dumb, inexperienced, unqualified) no matter what she does, so her only option is to bypass the press.
Palin’s TLC show is giving Americans a close look at factor 1. She has also published books covering factors 1 (Going Rogue) and 2 (America by Heart). I expect her earliest campaign to be philosophical as well, explaining again what she believes. Her op-eds (and her likely next book) cover factors 2 and 3. Any campaign she runs will use all three to try to gain factor 4.
As for myself, I support Palin so far because:
- 1: I think I know who she is, and I like her. If something convinces me that she is not who she presents herself to be, this can change.
- 2: I share most of her beliefs. If something convinces me she is being disingenuous in what she says she believes, this can change.
- 3: I think what she wants as far as policy are good, so far as she has expressed policy preferences. Should she express a policy preference I disagree with, this can change.
- And so…
- 4: I will join her. This can change.
If I am right, Palin will win 2012 in a landslide.